Thursday, February 05, 2004
Qualifiers --
Just a note on words such as "May", "Possibly", "Might", "Chance of" (i.e. "We may find WMD in Iraq"):
To me, these words imply that there is a probability ranging from .000000000000000000000001 % to 99.9% that something is/will be true.
For example, if I roll a dice, I may get a six.
On the other hand, if I flip a coin, there is as equal a chance of getting a head as a tail.
If there are dark storm clouds overhead, it will probably rain.
Finally, the sun will definitely rise tomorrow.
I'm no mathematician, that's for sure, and neither am I qualified in epistemology, so I'm sure I'm not stating this quite correctly, but the problem is assigning commonly used words as indicators of what we believe will happen in the future.
So when Donald Rumsfeld says that we might find WMD in Iraq, that is really not such an informative statement and open to much future equivocation.
AND how in the world can the Army come out an say we will catch Osama bin Laden this year? That to me is an outrageous assertion given our track record thus far.
But wait, it's an election year, and last time I checked the year ends in December while the election is in Novemeber. Trying to diffuse an embarrassing failure months before the election maybe?
Basically they're all full of shit, sophists to a man.
|
Just a note on words such as "May", "Possibly", "Might", "Chance of" (i.e. "We may find WMD in Iraq"):
To me, these words imply that there is a probability ranging from .000000000000000000000001 % to 99.9% that something is/will be true.
For example, if I roll a dice, I may get a six.
On the other hand, if I flip a coin, there is as equal a chance of getting a head as a tail.
If there are dark storm clouds overhead, it will probably rain.
Finally, the sun will definitely rise tomorrow.
I'm no mathematician, that's for sure, and neither am I qualified in epistemology, so I'm sure I'm not stating this quite correctly, but the problem is assigning commonly used words as indicators of what we believe will happen in the future.
So when Donald Rumsfeld says that we might find WMD in Iraq, that is really not such an informative statement and open to much future equivocation.
AND how in the world can the Army come out an say we will catch Osama bin Laden this year? That to me is an outrageous assertion given our track record thus far.
But wait, it's an election year, and last time I checked the year ends in December while the election is in Novemeber. Trying to diffuse an embarrassing failure months before the election maybe?
Basically they're all full of shit, sophists to a man.
|
